Monday, September 2, 2019

A heightened level of concern across the entire Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico

Caption:  NHC Tropical Weather Outlook Page, Labor Day 2019
From the coast of West Africa to the Gulf of Mexico, there are tropical disturbances that surround Major hurricane Dorian.  A system off of Cape Verde has the best chance of forming into a tropical depression shortly but the disturbances over the Gulf of Mexico or south of Bermuda also need to be watched.   Areas of Concern:

1.  Hurricane Dorian is expected to move up the coast.  I think most folks feel that it will remain off the coast, but the global and high-resolution hurricane models have uncertainty on the track.  My gut tells me that some part of the SE coastline will experience hurricane conditions.  Please be ready.

2.  The tropical disturbance in the Gulf may develop into tropical depression before going into Mexico.  It could still bring heavy rain. 

3.  A strong African Easterly Wave is forecasted to emerge off the coast over the next 48 hours and potentially form into a tropical depression soon after.  These type of low latitude waves are the most dangerous in the extreme Eastern Atlantic and have the potential to intensify off the coast of Senegal.  This would pose a threat to the population of Cabo Verde.  This disturbance could also move downstream towards the Caribbean the following week.  Stay Tuned.  The Cabo Verde season is in high gear.

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