Tropical Storm expected to impact Cabo Verde tomorrow rain begin tonight.. Residents of Cabo Verde should Take necessary Precautions tonight!

Over the next 24 hours expect potentially hazardous conditions over the country of Cabo Verde along with the possibility of heavy rain in Senegal tonight and rough seas along coastal Senegal and the Gambia.  As of 5 PM the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the disturbance to TD #15.   This may be a tropical storm tomorrow bringing winds and possible flooding.

Caption:  Tropical disturbance off the coast of Senegal at 1700 UTC

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 20.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

However, interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor
the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning may be
required for portions of the islands later tonight or early Tuesday.

The model uncertainty is unclear about the exact track but intensification is possible as waters are above normal along the track.

I hope that the government will issue a Tropical Storm Watch shortly for Tomorrow.  

Vulnerable Areas and threats 

Coastlines

Caption: Airplane approach to the Capital City of Praia

The shape of many coastlines across the islands of  Cabo Verde has open parabolic shapes which can

produce coastal flooding.  The tropical disturbance does not need to cross a particular island but a fetch (water pushed by the winds for many hours) can occur from persistently strong winds producing coastal flooding.    

Flash Flooding

People should not go out tomorrow for work as the roads could be dangerous and flooded.  Please check the TV or Radio if you have to go out

Cape Verde has very steep terrain and many houses that are elevated on hills and so flash flooding could be problematic.   Santiago, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, Fogo, and Sao Vicente have some steep terrain with mountains exceeding 3000 feet that falls off rapidly.  

Even in the Capital city of Praia, the houses sit on pretty steep hills which promote fast runoff and potential flash flooding.  Take care near these areas.

Houses in Praia that are elevated on hills 

Preparation Items 

-Make sure that you have flashlight, candles and charge cell phones in the event of loss of power

- Fill your car with gas in the event of power loss

- Take Cash from Bank

- Check-in with family members on other Islands 

Hopefully, things will not be too bad, but better safe than sorry.

Senegal 

Strong storms continue to impact Senegal tonight.  The ocean will remain rough and some coastal flooding is possible with a southerly fetch.  

Coastal disturbance expected to bring rain and unsettled seas from Guinea to Mauritania Tomorrow through Tuesday

Sunday Midnight IR image of disturbance with convection over Guinea

A potent African Easterly Wave is expected to emerge over the Eastern Atlantic on late Sunday night through early Monday morning.  Potential heavy rain is expected from Guinea north through Senegal beginning tomorrow night.  While the disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, the steering currents at 15000 feet are expected to steer the storm north along a path between Senegal and Cape Verde from Monday through Wednesday.      Given the path of the storm, it may pose a threat to coastal fishermen and shipping through Wednesday.   The eastern Islands of Cabo Verde could be impacted but it is too early to also tell.   The rain threat in Senegal should begin tomorrow afternoon and continue through Monday.    Lets hope that this is the last rain event in Senegal this year but this storm is worth watching. 

Is the October the new July in West Africa? -- Rainy season continues in Senegal with significant damage in Dakar (Oct. 2-3)

Caption:  CHRS iRain estimated rainfall over the past 72 hours (October 9) in West Africa

In a typical year, the rainy season in the Sahel (north of 10 N) begins in June and runs through September.  Then the rain will shut off for the next 8 months and crystal blue skies unless there are dust storms or biomass burning (another story)  However, this year has been very different, especially in the Western Sahel... Senegal in particular.   June and most of July were very dry causing major concerns for farmers, however, August and September turned very wet.  Sometime about September 20th it appeared the dry season was making its entrance, but then around October 1st rain began falling again.  The rain has not stopped and it has rain as far north at Mauritania (very unusual).    For example, satellite estimates show that heavy rain has fallen over both Senegal and Mauritania in just the last 72 hours and for the past 3 days in parts of Senegal and the past 24 hours in Mauritania.

Caption: CHRS Satellite estimated Rainfall in Senegal 

Caption: Satellite estimated rainfall in Mauritania (Oct 6-9, 201)

On the night of October 2 through October 3, 2019 a very strong Mesoscale Convective system moved through Senegal and caused a significant amount of damage in Dakar, the capital.   We might expect this in July or August but not in October.   The damage was documented on Facebook by La Meteo Dakaroise de Riad and is pretty incredible. 

https://www.facebook.com/meteodakaroise/videos/530636927765427/


There are real implications for vector-borne disease (especially Malaria) of being wetter in Senegal and warmer than normal across most of Africa during this wet season.  September was the warmest month on record..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/04/earth-just-experienced-its-hottest-september-heads-record-books/

Hopefully, the rain will break soon, but the models are suggesting several strong easterly waves over the next 10 days which could bring more rain.  Stay tuned.