Engaging at the community level in Africa and the African Diaspora

Caption:  Drivers of Unexpected and dangerous environmental outcomes 

For the last year, I have been working with the Atlantic International Research (AIR) Centre.  Every time I give a presentation I put up the figure above.   I explain to folks that people are caught off guard by weather events that didn't happen so frequently in the past.  However, the three factors above are creeping up on us at an alarming rate.  Let me explain below.  Today, most folks are trying to make money, have a nice car, phone,  home or enjoying our lives without realizing that most of our systems are not sustainable in the long run.

Questions?

• Have you ever taken a trip and the forecast is calling for scattered showers but the road is washed out?    
• Have you experienced more flooding around your home lately?
•  If you grow food, is there too much or too little rain leading to poor yield? 
•  If you live near a coast, does it flood more frequently at high tide?

These, my friends are unexpected and dangerous environmental outcomes that each of us may experience.  However, it is happening on a global level.  Let me explain.

Natural Hazards
Natural hazards include flash flooding, river or stream flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, poor air quality events, heat waves, dry spells, coastal flooding, severe thunderstorms... Stuff that makes you go ... Oh  #*!%

Natural hazards have always been with us, but are difficult to forecast and happen on shorter time scales (minutes to several weeks).   If you live near a coastline or near a river, there are oral histories of events for people that live there.  Natural hazards always command respect.

Human Factors 

The global population is now 7.5 billion persons.  It was an estimated 3 billion in 1960 and 5 billion in 1987.

World Population growth since 1950 (source Annenberg center)

As you can tell from this figure, much of the growth is occurring in less developed nations where resources are limited.  The growth is happening largely in urban cities which are developing into Mega-Cities, for example, Lagos Nigeria and New Delhi, India have more than 20 million persons.  The first thing that you notice when you enter a Mega-city is the traffic.  You cannot go anywhere fast.   You leave 3-5 hours before your flight because of traffic.

Caption:  Traffic in New Delhi India, December 2017

Another thing with mega-cities is pollution.  Generally, air pollution is much worse in large cities than in outlying areas.   In large cities, waste is generated in very large amounts and generally sent to landfills outside of that urban location.  In developing countries, the focus is on trash collection and not recycling.  So you rarely find bins for recycling in large cities in Africa for example.  It is at the waste sites that there are people recycling through the trash.  Unfortunately, the pay is low and the health consequences are high.  I am told that kidney failure is one of the negative health outcomes of working at a waste site.  In addition, very poor air quality from the burning of waste is bad for the workers and downwind communities.  Even in industrialized countries, not all of the waste can be recycled.

Megacity waste and pollution in Senegal 

Electronic waste -or e-waste is an evolving problem with all of our electronics- computers, phones, refrigerators, TVs .....   This type of waste can come from within a country or is imported into a poorer nation.   Crafty informal workers can take this waste and transform it into new products.  However, there is inherent risk in burning wire or taking apart electronic to get copper or other precious metals.  The health effects are not well known, but PCBs and other toxic substances can be involved.

Caption: E-waste site in Agbogbloshie Ghana, October 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdXK8_orUBU

Fortunately, my colleague and associate director of AESEDA, DK Osseo-Asare is helping to make this site safer and also changing the image from a negative one to a positive one.

https://www.ted.com/talks/dk_osseo_asare_what_a_scrapyard_in_ghana_can_teach_us_about_innovation


Coastal Development
There are many low lying cities in the tropics and around the world and hence coastal flooding is very problematic.  In addition, tropical cyclones that make landfall near these sites are often devastating because of storm surge.

Coastal development and populations are growing very fast.  The developments and the number of people are threatening natural barriers such as beaches which act as barriers and mangrove forest and replacing them with beachfront hotels and villas.

Coastal Development in the Canary Islands, Lagos Nigeria and near Accra Ghana

Climate Change

This is the greatest threat to the globe and will manifest itself everywhere, now and in the coming decades.  How severe it will get, depends on human actions to reduce carbon emissions.   The global emissions of greenhouse gases have occurred as economies and populations have grown.  Greenhouse gases have led to warmer temperatures at most locations around the world.   CO2 concentrations have reached 415 parts per million (ppm) in 2019 from natural levels of 200-280 ppm prior to 1750.  Global temperatures have warmed by more than 1 C from preindustrial values and are higher in some regions.  Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to rises in CO2 or temperatures 

                         Caption: Global CO2 emissions since 1750 with country contributions. 

Caption: Global CO2 concentrations since 2000 and over the past 400,000 years (NASA source).

How does Climate Change link to unexpected and dangerous environmental conditions?  Let me give you two examples:

1. )  Sea level rise.  Warming temperatures cause oceans to warm which causes thermal expansion and sea-level rise.  Melting ice-sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic will also contribute to sea-level rise.  We expect it to rise approximately 1+ meters by 2100 and it could be much more.  The sea will rise for the next two centuries and it will happen while coastal populations are increasing in numbers.  There is strong evidence that the Antarctic which has Earth's largest ice-sheets is unstable because of warming.

Caption:  Article by Richard Alley in February 2019 Scientific American

2.) Extreme flooding events.  Two things happen.  A warmer Earth promotes more ocean evaporation (Earth is 70% water) which goes into the atmosphere.  (2)  At any given time, a warmer atmosphere can hold larger amounts of water vapor before precipitating.  So the atmosphere will have a greater amount of water coming from the oceans and will have the capacity to hold more until....  Well until it rains.  This could be in the form of a garden variety thunderstorm, organized thunderstorms (mesoscale convective complexes), synoptic storms (normal weather systems in mid-latitudes or African Easterly Waves) or hurricanes.    Hurricanes thrive on the warm ocean temperatures and the change in state from vapor to liquid, so if there is more water vapor available, we should expect that stronger as was the case with Hurricane Harvey.  

                                 Caption: Hurricane Harvey (August 2017 near Texas Coast)


So the next time, that you see extreme weather ask how is the built environment (cities), and a warmer environment contributing to what you are experiencing?

It is the consequences of these three factors which require scientists to engage local communities, especially in Africa and the African Diaspora in places such as Brazil, the United States, and the Caribbean.