Active Wave Pattern across the Atlantic and back into West Africa

NHC Tropical Weather Advisory, September 10

This morning there are three active areas where tropical waves are present over the Western, Central and Eastern Atlantic. 

1. Western Atlantic disturbance.  Models are suggesting that the tropical wave just north of Haiti may develop in the Gulf of Mexico, but not all of the models agree.  Any development would impact Louisiana or Texas over the next 4-5 days.

2.  Central Atlantic Disturbance.  This wave went across Cabo Verde a few days ago providing much-needed rain in the southern part of the country.  It has gone through periods of organization but conditions are not currently favorable with strong wind shear to the north and west of the disturbance.  However, the monsoon trough or a second wave is expected to develop in concert with this tropical disturbances.  The Canadian and American models have disturbance impacting the Caribbean over the next week.  Too early to tell how strong this disturbance will be if it forms at all.  Be prepared in Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.

3.  Eastern Atlantic Disturbance.  This wave has been producing heavy rain over Senegal and The Gambia over the last 48 hours.  It will likely give Cabo Verde rain today and tomorrow.  This one needs to be watched in the coming days. 

4. Over West Africa forecasted African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are lining up to emerge from the coast every 2-3 days.  This could lead to flooding over land, but eventually one of these waves may become a tropical depression, storm or hurricane.   The current environmental conditions remain favorable for strong AEWs (deep moisture and a strong African Easterly Jet that is located pretty far north).   Coastal areas of West Africa and Cabo Verde should remain vigilant and be prepared to deal with unexpected changes in weather conditions.

Take away message: 

1.  Heavy rains and flooding possible in West Africa over the next 10 days
2.  Tropical waves are very active and may have impacts as tropical cyclones downstream over Cabe Verde, the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or Eastern Atlantic Seaboard.
3.  Don't drop your guard and be prepared.