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| Hurricane Dorian on Wednesday 1026 PM EST (NOAA Satellite-geocolor) |
This evening Hurricane Dorian is bearing down on South Carolina and North Carolina. A little more than a year ago, it was Hurricane Florence.
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| Hurricane Florence on September 11, 3 days before striking North Carolina |
Comparisons in Hurricanes :
Hurricane Florence -
Incredible damage in North Carolina and South Carolina from surge, flooding.
Highest winds 150 mph
Lowest Pressure 937 millibars
Landfall category 1
Hurricane Dorian -
Highest winds 185 mph
Lowest Pressure 910 mb
Potential US landfall (Cat 2-3)
Massive damage in the Bahamas
Hurricane Florence caused tremendous amounts of flooding in North Carolina. The storm surge went up the rivers causing flooding, the beaches and areas near the coastlines were devastated and heavy rains caused lots of flooding.
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| September 2018, Carolina road washed out near Wilmington |
Far away from the coast in Duplin Country, the Cape Fear River went over its banks causing a tremendous amount of damage. House after house experienced flooding in a county where people are not rich.
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| Duplin County near NC-41 just before Wallace (Sept 2018) |
In my opinion, Hurricane Dorian poses a greater risk than Florence. First, it has been strengthening all day as has been upgraded to a Category 3. It is also a big storm and reminds me of Hurricane Floyd. Many people have not evacuated because earlier today it was forecasted to be a Category 1. The models have been in disagreement with the satellite data, with the storm showing greater organization throughout the day. I call family in NC and told them to be ready and that this might be worst than last year. With Hurricane Florence, many people had a false sense of security because the storm was downgraded. You have to look at all of the hazards (flooding, surge...) and not just the winds..
Here are the things to bear in mind with Dorian if you live in Southeastern North Carolina or NE South Carolina.
Winds -- they will likely gust beyond hurricane force for a large part of the region from Thursday through Friday. Expect down trees and roof damage.
Rain.. Flash flooding is likely in many areas
River flooding from Storm Surge. If you live near the Cape Fear river, please consider staying in a shelter until Saturday. The river will reach FLOOD stage. I-40 was closed at Burgaw last year because the road was flooded.
Given that Round 2 is about to start FOCUS and make sure that
1. You have all of your electronics charged.
2. Make sure that you have gas.
3. Know where the local shelters are located.
4. Make sure that you have fresh water and foods for several days.
5. Touch base with all loved ones before tomorrow morning and let them know where you would go if you have to evacuate.
6. Get all of your prescriptions and important papers together and put them in a bag that you can take with you if you have to flee.
7. Don't drive across a flooded road.
8. Watch out for falling trees, debris, and electrical wires.
9. Make sure that you have cash...
10. If you live near the Cape Fear River or others... It may flood anytime over the next 1-3 days. Don't get lulled into thinking that it won't flood. Dorian's storm surge is going to push the water into North Carolina.
11. Trust your gut, if you don't feel secure, flee to a nearby shelter.
Here are the latest warnings from NWS Wilmington (11 PM)
Dorian Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 47
National Weather Service Wilmington NC AL052019
1103 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019
NCZ105-051115-
/O.CON.KILM.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Pender-
1103 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Burgaw
- Rocky Point
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-75 mph with gusts to 90 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning
until Friday afternoon
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Thursday evening until
early Friday morning
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 74 to
110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force due to possible forecast changes in
track, size, or intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Some structural damage is likely, with buildings receiving
roof damage as well as window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes potentially suffering severe damage,
with some destroyed. Damage may be enhanced by projectiles.
Locations may be inaccessible or uninhabitable for some
time after the storm passes.
- Widespread large limbs will be down and many trees snapped
or uprooted, along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Roads will be blocked in many areas as a result of large
debris, especially within urban or heavily wooded areas.
Several bridges, causeways, and elevated roadways will
likely become unsafe.
- Widespread areas will suffer from power and communication
outages.
- Several poorly secured small craft may break from their
moorings.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through early Friday evening
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1
foot above ground.
- PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect
flooding of low-lying roads and property.
- ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to
follow the instructions of local officials.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major flooding from rainfall may prompt evacuations and
numerous rescues.
- Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Creeks and ditches will flood and may
contain strong currents.
- Flood waters may enter many structures, and some may become
uninhabitable. Some road scours or complete road failures
will be possible, along with the potential for sinkholes.
Many streets and parking lots may flood, and may be
impacted by flowing water. Many road and low-lying bridge
closures are possible with some weakened or washed away.
Driving conditions will be dangerous.The delivery of
drinking water and sewer services may be interrupted. Flood
waters may be polluted and contain hazardous materials.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Tornadoes can cause damage to trees, vehicles, boats, and
buildings. Unsecured mobile homes and poorly constructed
structures are particularly vulnerable.
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