Engaging at the community level in Africa and the African Diaspora

Caption:  Drivers of Unexpected and dangerous environmental outcomes 

For the last year, I have been working with the Atlantic International Research (AIR) Centre.  Every time I give a presentation I put up the figure above.   I explain to folks that people are caught off guard by weather events that didn't happen so frequently in the past.  However, the three factors above are creeping up on us at an alarming rate.  Let me explain below.  Today, most folks are trying to make money, have a nice car, phone,  home or enjoying our lives without realizing that most of our systems are not sustainable in the long run.

Questions?

• Have you ever taken a trip and the forecast is calling for scattered showers but the road is washed out?    
• Have you experienced more flooding around your home lately?
•  If you grow food, is there too much or too little rain leading to poor yield? 
•  If you live near a coast, does it flood more frequently at high tide?

These, my friends are unexpected and dangerous environmental outcomes that each of us may experience.  However, it is happening on a global level.  Let me explain.

Natural Hazards
Natural hazards include flash flooding, river or stream flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, poor air quality events, heat waves, dry spells, coastal flooding, severe thunderstorms... Stuff that makes you go ... Oh  #*!%

Natural hazards have always been with us, but are difficult to forecast and happen on shorter time scales (minutes to several weeks).   If you live near a coastline or near a river, there are oral histories of events for people that live there.  Natural hazards always command respect.

Human Factors 

The global population is now 7.5 billion persons.  It was an estimated 3 billion in 1960 and 5 billion in 1987.

World Population growth since 1950 (source Annenberg center)

As you can tell from this figure, much of the growth is occurring in less developed nations where resources are limited.  The growth is happening largely in urban cities which are developing into Mega-Cities, for example, Lagos Nigeria and New Delhi, India have more than 20 million persons.  The first thing that you notice when you enter a Mega-city is the traffic.  You cannot go anywhere fast.   You leave 3-5 hours before your flight because of traffic.

Caption:  Traffic in New Delhi India, December 2017

Another thing with mega-cities is pollution.  Generally, air pollution is much worse in large cities than in outlying areas.   In large cities, waste is generated in very large amounts and generally sent to landfills outside of that urban location.  In developing countries, the focus is on trash collection and not recycling.  So you rarely find bins for recycling in large cities in Africa for example.  It is at the waste sites that there are people recycling through the trash.  Unfortunately, the pay is low and the health consequences are high.  I am told that kidney failure is one of the negative health outcomes of working at a waste site.  In addition, very poor air quality from the burning of waste is bad for the workers and downwind communities.  Even in industrialized countries, not all of the waste can be recycled.

Megacity waste and pollution in Senegal 

Electronic waste -or e-waste is an evolving problem with all of our electronics- computers, phones, refrigerators, TVs .....   This type of waste can come from within a country or is imported into a poorer nation.   Crafty informal workers can take this waste and transform it into new products.  However, there is inherent risk in burning wire or taking apart electronic to get copper or other precious metals.  The health effects are not well known, but PCBs and other toxic substances can be involved.

Caption: E-waste site in Agbogbloshie Ghana, October 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdXK8_orUBU

Fortunately, my colleague and associate director of AESEDA, DK Osseo-Asare is helping to make this site safer and also changing the image from a negative one to a positive one.

https://www.ted.com/talks/dk_osseo_asare_what_a_scrapyard_in_ghana_can_teach_us_about_innovation


Coastal Development
There are many low lying cities in the tropics and around the world and hence coastal flooding is very problematic.  In addition, tropical cyclones that make landfall near these sites are often devastating because of storm surge.

Coastal development and populations are growing very fast.  The developments and the number of people are threatening natural barriers such as beaches which act as barriers and mangrove forest and replacing them with beachfront hotels and villas.

Coastal Development in the Canary Islands, Lagos Nigeria and near Accra Ghana

Climate Change

This is the greatest threat to the globe and will manifest itself everywhere, now and in the coming decades.  How severe it will get, depends on human actions to reduce carbon emissions.   The global emissions of greenhouse gases have occurred as economies and populations have grown.  Greenhouse gases have led to warmer temperatures at most locations around the world.   CO2 concentrations have reached 415 parts per million (ppm) in 2019 from natural levels of 200-280 ppm prior to 1750.  Global temperatures have warmed by more than 1 C from preindustrial values and are higher in some regions.  Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to rises in CO2 or temperatures 

                         Caption: Global CO2 emissions since 1750 with country contributions. 

Caption: Global CO2 concentrations since 2000 and over the past 400,000 years (NASA source).

How does Climate Change link to unexpected and dangerous environmental conditions?  Let me give you two examples:

1. )  Sea level rise.  Warming temperatures cause oceans to warm which causes thermal expansion and sea-level rise.  Melting ice-sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic will also contribute to sea-level rise.  We expect it to rise approximately 1+ meters by 2100 and it could be much more.  The sea will rise for the next two centuries and it will happen while coastal populations are increasing in numbers.  There is strong evidence that the Antarctic which has Earth's largest ice-sheets is unstable because of warming.

Caption:  Article by Richard Alley in February 2019 Scientific American

2.) Extreme flooding events.  Two things happen.  A warmer Earth promotes more ocean evaporation (Earth is 70% water) which goes into the atmosphere.  (2)  At any given time, a warmer atmosphere can hold larger amounts of water vapor before precipitating.  So the atmosphere will have a greater amount of water coming from the oceans and will have the capacity to hold more until....  Well until it rains.  This could be in the form of a garden variety thunderstorm, organized thunderstorms (mesoscale convective complexes), synoptic storms (normal weather systems in mid-latitudes or African Easterly Waves) or hurricanes.    Hurricanes thrive on the warm ocean temperatures and the change in state from vapor to liquid, so if there is more water vapor available, we should expect that stronger as was the case with Hurricane Harvey.  

                                 Caption: Hurricane Harvey (August 2017 near Texas Coast)


So the next time, that you see extreme weather ask how is the built environment (cities), and a warmer environment contributing to what you are experiencing?

It is the consequences of these three factors which require scientists to engage local communities, especially in Africa and the African Diaspora in places such as Brazil, the United States, and the Caribbean. 

Climate and Weather Distillery for Africa and the Africa Diaspora: Tropical Storm Dorian Forms from and to affect Les...

Climate and Weather Distillery for Africa and the Africa Diaspora: Tropical Storm Dorian Forms from and to affect Les...: Tropical Storm Dorian formed this afternoon over the Central Atlantic.  Its is a compact storm and has been improving its organization throu...

Tropical Storm Dorian Forms from and to affect Lesser Antilles in a few days, .. Heavy rain possible Senegal from new wave

Tropical Storm Dorian formed this afternoon over the Central Atlantic.  Its is a compact storm and has been improving its organization throughout the day.   For the last day, the models have been having trouble with the intensity with Dorian with most keeping it as a weak wave, contrary to satellite observations.  That is the importance of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) -- human experience, observations, and models.   The current forecast will take it through the lesser Antilles towards Puerto Rico and Haiti.  It is too early to determine the exact track, but the NHC intensity forecast is calling for a hurricane in 3 days.   Many people in Puerto Rico remains vulnerable because of Hurricane Maria 2 years ago.  Please stay informed there!!

5 PM Saturday August 24 NHC 5-day track

If you live along the path, which includes Barbados, it is not too early to make sure that you are prepared for possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings in the coming days. Given the large uncertainty, it is not the time to panic but just plan ahead.  As I said in an earlier post, the next few weeks seem favorable for waves from Africa to develop into tropical cyclones.


Possible Heavy Rain in Senegal over the next 24 hours 

A strong African Easterly Wave (AEW) has dropped heavy rain over Eastern Mali and is moving into Western Senegal.  This is a complex weather situation, with the AEW potentially sitting over Senegal in 2 days.  Consequently, flooding is a possibility. 

Infrared Image showing deep thunderstorm moving into Western Senegal, at 1845 UTC (2 45 PM EST) on Saturday August 24, 2019.

I  don't have high confidence in the models on this one because (1) There are currently no upper-air observations over to the west of Niger; without actual in situ data, the models are assimilating satellite data.  (2) Without these stations, the moisture which triggers thunderstorms is WRONG. 

Upper-Air Observations at 1200 UTC Saturday, August 24, 2019

I hope that my friends at the National Weather Service of Senegal (ANICIM) will do their best to watch this situation over the next 48 hours.  Near real-time warning systems in West Africa are poorly organized at this point. 

Cabo (Cape) Verde Season poised to go

Many of the tropical storms or hurricanes that form over the Atlantic develop directly from African Easterly Waves (AEWs).  Normally, the pass across West Africa every 3-5 days and are most pronounced at 10,000 feet or 3000 meters.  These waves provide important rains for West African farmers, however, this year the waves have not been so regular.  It has been felt to most in the Western Sahel.. (Senegal); for example, Saturday night was only the second rain with more than 10 mm of rain.  

Caption: Rainfall recorded in Dakar Senegal from May 17 through August 17

It is not just Dakar, that has been dry but much of Senegal during this period.  

Caption:  May-August rainfall anomalies (brown means dry)

The dryness in Senegal can be attributed to several items which I explain

1.) El Nino year.  During most of the summer, the Pacific was warmer than normal (El Nino conditions) and this leads to more westerly shear, which does not allow thunderstorms to persist for very long.  The El Nino has now collapsed.

2.)  Saharan Air Layer Intrusion.  There were many episodes of the Saharan air moving across the Atlantic during June and July.  With each intrusion, there is very dry air, which is stable and contains dust particles.  The dry air is normally between 3000 and 15000 feet and easy to see when you fly above it on a commercial airline. 

Caption: Flying about Saharan Air Layer on June 16 early afternoon between Dakar and Cabo Verde(left) and early evening (right)
between Praia, Cabo Verde and Sal Cabo Verde 

3.  Warming in the Indian Ocean.  We now know that the more than 2 decades of drying over much of West Africa was linked to warming in the Indian Ocean which is related to anthropogenic warming from greenhouse gases.  When the Indian Ocean is warm, it tends to promote more sinking of dry air over Africa, thereby reducing rain.  

Caption:  Warmer waters are present over much of the Indian Ocean and extending toward Africa

A shift towards stronger waves and wetter conditions??

Yes. Over the last week, we have seen signs that AEWs will begin to look more like the normal conditions.  A stream of fast winds called the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) has shifted towards northern Senegal and should provide fuel for waves to grow.  The Saharan Air layer in response also seems to be moving further north giving the waves a chance to grow. 

What else might happen and is it related to climate change?

Studies undertaken by Dr. Bamba Sylla (a good colleague that I helped to mentor) suggest that June and July will be dryer over the Sahel region, but during August and September there will be intense and possibly extreme rainfall when it occurs as the climate continues to warm throughout the 21st century.  This pattern of extreme rainfall which poses a serious threat to agriculture and food security is lessened if we act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  

So will there be more tropical storms, hurricanes in the next 2-3 months?

I think that the likelihood of tropical systems developing from AEWs over the next 10 days will significantly increase.   Ocean temperatures across most of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are above normal but conditions still need to be suitable for tropical cyclones to form (limited dry air, low shear).  

Take Away:  Be prepared, especially if you live on an island or within 10 miles of a coastline!!  Remember it is not just the wind or the storm surge it is the rain, overflowing streams, and rivers.

Caption:  Tropical Storm Florence just passing Cabo Verde Sept 1, 2018 (left) approaching North Carolina Sept 13, 2018 (right) `

Caption: Duplin Country flooding from Hurricane Florence (September 14-17)

I will be closely monitoring. 

Indecision: The many or the few...... the academy or the community

The life of a scholar is relatively simple.... teach, get published and get money (grants).    I have
done this now for more than 2 decades at Penn State and Howard University.   We are granted tenure based on service, teaching, and research.  Of these 3, research helps to keep the lights on at university and so it is highly prized.   We compete for grants and write journal articles about the work that we do.  This process is very slow, normally taking up to a year to reach to the science community and even longer if it is policy-related.

Unfortunately, we are in a world where the African and populations in its diaspora are growing fast, they receive little warning or understanding about how their communities are impacted.   For instance, thousands of deaths occurred with two tropical cyclones slamming into Mozambique in March 2019.  The biggest problem we face is the lack of data in and surrounding Africa for weather and climate and second communication with communities on how to prepare for hazards and climate change.

Image of Tropical Cyclone Idai just before landfall in Mozambique during March 2019

I know from my experience on the continent that normal people are the losers and that the university is not doing enough.  So my decision is to do less academic journals and more community-related science work.   This means breaking down new studies and data that emerge along with threats that the community may face from natural hazards.  Will it be frowned upon by my scientific peers?  Maybe, but I believe that as climate change continues to impact communities globally, the journal will be the wrong place to communicate what is happening.  We will need rapid and clear communication to the public and policymakers.   People will need to be informed about the impacts which will allow them to make better choices on adaptation.

This is the first step in that direction.  or should I turn around and race back to the ivory tower? What do you think?